The article published by The Insurer this month (Jones, Reuters, 2025) asserts that strong reinsurer growth appetites are driving ample capacity into the upcoming credit, surety, and political risk (CBPR) renewals. An all-source research analysis indicates that this assertion is defensible. Independent market reports, capital surveys, and rating agency commentary provide evidence that reinsurers remain well capitalized and motivated to deploy capacity, even as cautionary signals emerge about longer-term profitability and underwriting discipline.
A central component of the article’s claim is that ample capital underpins reinsurer willingness to expand. Aon’s Reinsurance Market Outlook reported that global reinsurer capital reached approximately $715 billion as of September 30, 2024, near all-time highs (Aon, 2024). The availability of such capital forms the structural basis for competitive market conditions. This abundance of capacity has translated into easing conditions for cedants at renewal, as reinsurers seek to put excess capital to work. Howden (2025) observed notable softening at the January 1, 2025 renewals, emphasizing that growth ambitions were a driving factor behind lower rates and improved terms for buyers. These data confirm that the industry entered 2025 from a position of strength, providing credibility to claims of a supportive supply environment.
Mid-year conditions reinforced this narrative. Reports on the July 2025 renewals indicated an oversupply of capacity in many specialty classes, highlighting reinsurers’ competitive stance (Insurance Insider, 2025). Guy Carpenter’s Global Specialties 2025 Market Update further anticipated sustained appetite for growth and a collaborative tone between cedants and reinsurers (Guy Carpenter, 2025). Such evidence shows that the competitive dynamics identified at the beginning of the year persisted into the latter half, lending credence to the article’s prediction of ample capacity as year-end approaches.
The most persuasive validation of the article’s assertions arises from sources specific to credit and surety. AXA XL’s Credit & Surety Market Survey 2025 found that 71 percent of respondents observed increased market capacity, with the remainder reporting stable conditions (AXA XL, 2025). The survey also noted that terms and conditions were loosening and that rates were generally under pressure, despite some deterioration in loss ratios since the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, the report confirmed that reinsurance capacity remained in adequate supply, directly substantiating the claim that ample capacity exists in CBPR lines. Similarly, Gallagher’s specialty updates highlighted a healthy structured-credit and political risk market, underpinned by reinsurer confidence and a willingness to deploy capital (Gallagher, 2025). AM Best (2024) also characterized the U.S. surety market as profitable, noting $2.2 billion in underwriting income in 2023, with growth supported by public infrastructure spending. Such profitability naturally supports reinsurer appetite to expand their share of this class.
Although the evidence strongly supports the article’s thesis, certain counterpoints merit attention. Munich Re (2025) cautioned that increased claim size and frequency have become more visible, prompting some reinsurers to impose higher retentions and maintain tighter structures for weaker cedants. This underscores that ample capacity is not uniformly accessible; rather, it is more readily available to cedants with strong data, governance, and performance histories. Additionally, rating agencies have begun to temper their outlooks. Moody’s shifted its reinsurance sector outlook to stable in early 2025, citing concerns over slowing pricing momentum (Moody’s, 2025). Fitch subsequently revised its 2026 outlook to “deteriorating,” warning that aggressive competition and loosening terms could erode margins if adverse loss experience materializes (Fitch, 2025). These outlooks do not refute the existence of ample current capacity but serve as reminders that reinsurer growth appetites may prove cyclical and could sow the seeds of future weakness.
Macro-level risks also temper the optimism. Shifts in global credit conditions, such as sovereign downgrades or trade-policy disruptions, can directly affect CBPR exposures. Even in a period of abundant supply, such factors may lead reinsurers to exercise caution in specific geographies or sectors. So, while aggregate capacity is ample, deployment remains selective, reflecting appropriate u/w discipline. I state this because the article’s generalized tone may understate this nuance.
The balance of evidence strongly supports the defensibility of the article’s claims. Ample capital, competitive renewal conditions, and specific credit and surety market surveys all align to confirm that reinsurers are entering the January 2026 renewals with both the capacity and the appetite to expand. Although underwriting discipline, rating agency caution, and macroeconomic uncertainty provide important caveats, none fundamentally undermine the assertion that reinsurer growth appetites are driving capacity expansion into CBPR lines. On this basis, the article’s core claim is credible, albeit somewhat optimistic in its lack of emphasis on selective underwriting and emerging risks.
~ C. Constantin Poindexter, MA, JD, CPCU, AFSB, ASLI, ARe
Bibliography
- Aon. (2024). Reinsurance Market Outlook: September 2024. Aon plc.
- AXA XL. (2025). Credit & Surety Market Survey 2025. AXA XL.
- Fitch Ratings. (2025). Global Reinsurance Outlook 2026: Deteriorating. Fitch Ratings.
- Gallagher. (2025). Specialty Credit, Surety and Political Risk Market Update. Gallagher.
- Guy Carpenter. (2025). Global Specialties 2025 Market Update. Guy Carpenter LLC.
- Howden. (2025). Reinsurance Renewal Report: January 1, 2025. Howden Group Holdings.
- Insurance Insider. (2025). Oversupply Shapes July Reinsurance Renewals. Insurance Insider, July 2025.
- Moody’s Investors Service. (2025). Global Reinsurance Sector Outlook: Stable. Moody’s.
- Munich Re. (2025). Market Conditions and Risk Outlook 2025. Munich Re.
- AM Best. (2024). U.S. Surety Market Report. AM Best.
